Can of Corn
Top eight HR hitters from the last five years
Home runs are really cool because they result in at least one run off of one pitch. Think about a home run like a stock. For just one pitch, you get one run. That's an incredible return on investment. Now if you consider there are some runners on base, well, then you're buying early Microsoft.
Let's consider the pitch market. Most pitches result in negative outcomes for a batter. For a hitter, a consistent .300 AVG is great, a steady .400 not-get-out-percentage (or OBP) is Coopersworthy. Every hit is unlikely to happen, just like investing in a new technology. Some will be home runs, but some will be duds where you don't cash in on the runs. Home runs eliminate the risk of the dud, as you cash in immediately, with the same cost as a hit (one pitch). How many of something would you buy if you could guarantee you doubled your investment? A home run is like that, but better. Or something.
Anyway, this table shows the top eight home run hitters of the last five years. Aaron Judge has an OPS+ of over 200, so when you consider his height and statistical output, he could literally be two people. It's an interesting take on the old classic, swapping the trenchcoat disguise for a giant pinstriped uniform, but I digress. The table is below:
| Player Name | HR | G | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | BB | K | RBI | AVG | SLG | OBP | OPS | OPS+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge | 227 | 632 | 2798 | 2251 | 514 | 687 | 120 | 3 | 498 | 708 | 502 | .305 | .664 | .433 | 1.097 | 204 |
| Kyle Schwarber | 220 | 738 | 3298 | 2750 | 495 | 628 | 98 | 7 | 498 | 981 | 498 | .228 | .509 | .351 | .860 | 133 |
| Shohei Ohtani | 213 | 715 | 3210 | 2736 | 545 | 800 | 141 | 32 | 422 | 763 | 492 | .292 | .601 | .389 | .990 | 172 |
| Pete Alonso | 181 | 754 | 3249 | 2831 | 433 | 708 | 141 | 3 | 320 | 738 | 534 | .250 | .494 | .337 | .831 | 131 |
| Matt Olson | 179 | 764 | 3336 | 2898 | 471 | 759 | 178 | 6 | 393 | 807 | 506 | .262 | .513 | .353 | .865 | 137 |
| Juan Soto | 167 | 716 | 3159 | 2538 | 484 | 684 | 116 | 10 | 586 | 529 | 437 | .270 | .520 | .407 | .927 | 159 |
| Cal Raleigh | 163 | 659 | 2669 | 2329 | 333 | 513 | 91 | 2 | 301 | 758 | 406 | .220 | .471 | .313 | .784 | 124 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 147 | 713 | 2955 | 2601 | 353 | 608 | 122 | 4 | 269 | 907 | 443 | .234 | .453 | .314 | .767 | 114 |
My favorite thing to do is sort by PA, because that ratio is usually the best way to determine someone's true power potential. Judge has the most home runs, but also has about as many plate appearances as the only catcher on the list in Cal Raleigh. Nothing against Cal of course, as his output is prolific on both sides of the ball, but it's common knowledge that catchers don't really stack up the ABs compared to other position players. The fact that Judge leads this list of superstars, despite not being available as often, is a clear testament to his slugging ability.
The only guy with more BBs than Ks on this list is, of course, Juan Soto. Pretty amazing that you can have this good of an eye, but this much power year-in and year-out. These kind of otherworldly abilities are what front offices need to see before they hand someone the mega-deal that Soto got. While Father Time is undefeated, your hands slow much quicker than your eye, so having elite strike zone recognition will keep you productive even when the other tools start to wear down.
Matt Olson has the fifth most homers, and the most plate appearances. Digging a tad bit deeper, I found that he has actually played in every game in the last five years, period, full stop. 162 over the last four years, and 116/116 this year, all for the Braves. Yeah, that A's trade was really that long ago. Wild. Anyway, Alonso and Schwarber have also both been pretty durable, and let's hope it stays that way for the future.
Speaking of, that seems like a good way to wrap it up. Being included on this list not only means that you can hit for power, it means you can generally stay available over a long period of time. People want to say Judge is injury prone, but he still is the best hitter over the last five years, from both a rate and counting stat basis. For that kind of production, I'd say don't complain, and just say thank you. The other guys on this list are somewhat equally incredible in that they are so consistently able to torque their bodies in a way to generate homer-inducing bat speed without accumulating noticeable wear in the process. This is probably something worth studying. In a sport of increasing injuries, figuring out what makes the best guys also the most available should be at the top of the research priority list.
If you could crack that code, just think of the ROI that could get you and your team. You'd be ROIkie of the Year.