Extra Innings

A Tale of Two True Outcomes

If you swing hard and you make contact, the ball is going to go far. If you swing hard and you don't make contact, you are going to strike out a lot. In the world we live in, we must swing hard.  Stringing together 3 or 4 singles is nigh impossible, now that pitchers have learned they can cash in their elbow ligaments in exchange for superspin. There are also gentleman like Jake Miz throwing 105. 

This creates scenarios where front offices are happy to trade 3 potential strike outs per inning for the chance at one big, run-producing swing. While every year some team plays small ball so well we hear whisperings about how it's back, last time I checked OPS fetches more than bunt aptitude in the free agent market. Until Chandler Simpson is making more than Kyle Schwarber, I'm going to stick with the notion that small ball ain't all the way back. 

Forget small ball anyway. Instead, I'm going all in on Medium Ball®. Honestly though, give me maybe two dedicated power hitters and literally the rest of my dudes are centerfield/shortstop types. These lithe dudes play all around the diamond, and my sluggers are limited to DH/1B/PH duty. On defense, give me one or two power pitchers. The rest? Diet Madduxes. Give me a rotation of guys who get soft contact, and let those CF/SS types do their thing behind him. Then fill the bullpen with guys who throw hard, and emphasize not having the same arm slot twice. 

This isn't a team-building article though, it's one about the correlation between hitting a lot home runs and striking out a lot while doing it. The opposite of small ball. The antithesis of Medium Ball®. I call it: Big Ball.

OK. So today, I noticed that Kyle Schwarber leads the majors in home runs (43), as well as strikeouts (200). It's hard for a troglodyte like myself, but I'll try my best at logic. If you can lead the league in home runs, you play a lot. Chances are, you also swing hard. If you play a lot and you swing hard, you probably miss a lot. Ipso facto, a lot of home runs, generally also means a lot of strikeouts. In 2026, Schwarber seems to embody the status quo of swing hard and swing often. I was curious, so I checked if this had ever happened before, and I was honestly pretty surprised to find that it happens pretty darn often. The vast majority of these big-swing feats occurred during the dead ball era, so instead of inundating you with guys you never heard of who played a completely different game, we'll take a look at every instance since 1950.

Believe it or not, it's happened 26 times! 75 years x 2 leagues = 150 possibilities, so 26/150 means the home run king of a given league leads his league in strikeouts about 1/6th, or 17% of the time. I was surprised by the large share here, but also how this phenomenon spanned across the entirety of the league's existence, instead of being more top-heavy in modern seasons. It's crazy, but sluggers who swing and miss a ton is hardly a modern thing, like some announcers or writers' work may have us believe - no, the ol' charge-up swing has been a part of the game for even longer than the DH, longer than Bob Gibson's lowered mound... even longer than non-wool uniforms. 

Interesting note: uniforms consistently stopped being made from wool in the early 70s, though teams had began experimenting with other fabrics as early as the 50s. That means these four dudes (one pitcher, three hitters), who played in both the 50s and 80s, lived and competed through one of the biggest (and slowest) wardrobe changes in world history.

Multi-Fabric PitchersGGSIPHHRRERKBBWLSVERAERA+FIPWHIP
Jim Kaat8986254530.146203952038173824611083283237173.451073.411.259
Multi-Fabric BattersGPAABRH2B3BHRBBKRBIBASLGOBPOPSOPS+
Minnie Minoso18357710657911361963336831868145841023.298.459.389.848130
Tim McCarver19096206552959015012425797548422645.271.388.337.725102
Willie McCovey2588969181971229221135346521134515501555.270.515.374.889147

As a kid, I used to go to a restaurant called McCovey's every year for my birthday, while my family lived in the Bay Area. Boy, what a great place. Despite my youth, I recall that the tables in that restaurant always had something good on them. Hopefully the tables below are just as compelling, though what is presented on them is significantly less edible. Instead of juicy cheeseburgers and crisp salads, the tables below show the dudes who hit mammoth bombs, but also strike out consistently. Instead of dumping the whole list here in one go, let's break it down somewhat. Why not use the same timeframe we just used for the baseball uniform thing, and query up the big swingers from the 1950s to the 1980s?

BatterYearGPAABRH2B3BHRBBKRBIBASLGOBPOPSOPS+
Dale Murphy19851627126161181853223790141111.300.539.388.927152
Tony Armas19841576796391071712954332156123.268.531.300.831121
Mike Schmidt198315466953410413616440128148109.255.524.399.923156
Dave Kingman19821496075358010991375915699.204.432.285.71799
Reggie Jackson1982153621530921461713985156101.275.532.375.907147
Tony Armas198110946244051115243221911576.261.480.294.774126
Dave Kingman1979145589532971531954845131115.288.613.343.956147
Gorman Thomas1979156668557971362904598175123.244.539.356.895138
Mike Schmidt197616070558411215331438100149107.262.524.376.900151
Mike Schmidt1975158674562931403433810118095.249.523.367.890142
Mike Schmidt197416268656810816028736106138116.282.546.395.941158
Willie Stargell19711416065111041512604883154125.295.628.3981.026186
Harmon Killebrew19621556665528513421148106142126.243.545.366.912139
Mickey Mantle19601536445271191451764011112594.275.558.399.957163
Mickey Mantle19581506545191271582114212912097.304.592.4431.035188
Larry Doby19521406115191041432683290111104.276.541.383.924163
Gus Zernial1951143638571921533053363101129.268.511.345.856127

The feat was certainly rarer back in the 50s and 60s, but is that because the game changed, or because Mike Schmidt entered the picture in the 70s? Either way, it is cool to actually see how the big-swing correlation is something that persists across the ages; there is no such thing as the perfect hitter, because even the 'best hitters' by measure of power are also the 'worst hitters' by measure of contact. Yin and yang, or something.

Now, let's take a look at the more modern instances of this feat, from the 90s until now:

BatterYearGPAABRH2B3BHRBBKRBIBASLGOBPOPSOPS+
Kyle Schwarber202613962051786125171439020087.242.528.357.885134
Kyle Schwarber2022155669577100126213468620094.218.504.323.827129
Jorge Soler2019162679589951563314873178117.265.569.354.922137
Aaron Judge201715567854212815424352127208114.284.627.4221.049171
Chris Carter201616064454984122271417620694.222.499.321.821113
Chris Davis20151606705731001503104784208117.262.562.361.923147
Pedro Alvarez2013152614558701302223648186100.233.473.296.770114
Jim Thome200315969857811115430347111182131.266.573.385.958153
Cecil Fielder19901596735731041592515190182132.277.592.377.969166

So in the last 25 years, it's happened 9 times. In the 40 years before that, it happened 17 times. It's not quite as bad as US or Japanese birth rates, but it's definitely declining. Given this data, it's pretty clear that power hitters have always struck out now. The only difference is that now in 2026, legacy baseball media makes you think it's a brand new thing. I wonder what else the 2026 legacy media isn't being entirely forthright about?

Given this info, I was of course curious about the inverse. If something happens 17% of the time, you MUST ask youself, what patterns exist in the 83% otherwise? So I checked to see if anyone ever led the league in HR while having fewer strikeouts than HRs. I didn't think this ever would've happened, but it has, and somewhat often, too - though not recently. 

BatterYearHRKGPAABRH2B3BBBRBIBASLGOBPOPSOPS+
Ted Kluszewski1954493514965957310418728378141.326.642.4071.049166
Joe DiMaggio19483930153669594110190261167155.320.598.396.994164
Johnny Mize1948403715265856011016226494125.289.564.395.959156
Johnny Mize1947514215466458613717726274138.302.614.384.998161
Tommy Holmes194528915471363612522447670117.352.577.420.997175
Ted Williams19413727143606456135185333147120.406.735.5531.287235
Joe DiMaggio19374637151692621151215351564167.346.673.4121.085169
Lou Gehrig19364946155719579167205377130152.354.696.4781.174191
Lou Gehrig19344931154690579128210406109166.363.706.4651.172208
Ken Williams19223931153677585128194341174155.332.627.4131.040165
Nap Lajoie1901148131583544145232481425125.426.643.4641.107—

11 times has a fellow hit more home runs than strikeouts while hitting more homers than anyone else. Big homer totals are cool and all, but these are the sort of seasons/numbers that we at Knuckleball really get into... how truly anomalous of a feat is something, given the context we understand the modern game under? 

We vote Steven Kwan in as an All-Star starter when he has a positive BB:K ratio, even when he's got an OPS of .600. I'm not hating by any means, I'd rather have Kwan on my team than 99% of big leaguers. It just goes to show how crazy one of these >HR:K< seasons would be in 2026. I hate to admit it, but it won't be Schwarber.