Well, I was totally wrong about the Rangers winning the AL West. Though, I did base that decision solely on run differential, and it looks like I wasn't totally wrong - the team who one the division, Houston, ended up with a considerably better run differential than Texas, flipping the script from a few days ago. Either way, if you want to learn more about the history of playoff teams who got scored on more than they scored, check out one of my previous articles covering exactly that.

The point of this series, however, is to take a look at how aggregate totals of offensive stats have varied since 2020. The table below shows offensive total output in the big leagues for a few key stats.

Today, let's look at the last two columns. Before you ask, OPS+ is below 100 for 2021 because when the league average OPS is calculated, it only considers position players. However, pitchers still had to hit in that season. A mark of 97 indicates that the baseline formula is dragged down by 3 points when considering the OPS+ of all pitchers At-Bats, whose At-Bats are applied to the equation only after the formula has already been calculated. 

Basically, there are two equations here. Equation 1 is the one that determines an OPS+ of 100 in a given season. It's determined using position players only, let's call that that Pool A. This changes every year when factoring for offensive climate, massive individual outputs, etc.; we all know an OPS+ of 100 in 2026 requires quite a different set of stats than an OPS+ of 100 in 2006 did.

Then, there's Equation 2. This takes every hitter's season numbers, including pitchers. We'll call that Pool B. Equation 2 runs the stats of every player in Pool B through Equation 1 to get the aggregate number we see in the chart. Naturally, 2022 and beyond were 100 because Equation 1 and Equation 2 compared the same players. Back in 2021, however, when pitchers still hit, Pool B had a larger sample size of poor hitters by way of the pitcher, so OPS+ was dragged down. If Pool A = Pool B, then OPS+ will = 100. If Pool A = Pool B, then OPS+ has a higher chance of being skewed. I'm not exactly sure why this number isn't lower than 97 given how bad pitchers are at hitting, but it also meant that there were probably more pinch hit scenarios available. That's a dive for another article, but I do wonder.

Well we can expect season OPS+ to stay at 100 for the foreseeable future, let's now look at how OPS itself has trended since COVID:

OPS had a big jump in 2023 of 3.97%, which could be attributed to the change to the base size. The new base size facilitated stealing, which put hitters on second more often; eliminating double plays but also increasing the chance to pick up signs. Relatedly, pitchers threw a larger percentage of fastballs in 2023 than they have in more recent seasons. A pitcher basically needs to throw a fastball to catch a base stealer, which gives batters a better chance to get something they can do damage with.

Fastball % continues to tick down

After teams had an offseason to adjust, however, OPS jumped back down 3.13% in 2024. After a slight bump in 2025, the 2026 has stayed remarkably the same as last season with an average OPS of .719. My guess is that in 2027, we will see a slight increase in OPS, if only because commissioner Rob Manfred is likely to continue rolling out hitter-friendly rule modifications. Say what you will about the commissioner, but I am all for that initiative.